For the uninitiated, betting on the cash line only means gambling on which team you think will win the match. The cash line is adjusted depending on the spread to assist books mitigate risk.
For example, a favorite of four points in the NBA might have a money lineup of around -184. As a consequence, you would have to wager $184 to win $100 if you wager on that team to win.
For underdogs it works a bit differently. A underdog in the NBA would have a cash line recorded at about +150. This means is that you’d win $150 for every $100 wagered on this team if they had been to win the game outright.
Converting NBA Spreads What I am really interested in is whether money line gambling from the NBA is profitable. I moved back over the results of over 20,000 matches to find out how teams have performed over the money line. I wished to see if it is well worth taking at any different spreads.
The chart below shows what the cash line for NBA matches at each spread should be dependent upon the outcomes of over 28,000 NBA games. It’s important to be aware that these will be the fair market values for every money line. Sportsbooks don’t provide fair market odds (otherwise they’d find it difficult to turn a profit). This way we can use the data to determine possible opportunities to take the money line if it isn’t properly priced. Since we’ve taken their assembled in advantage out of every chance, we could feel confident that we’re getting real value when the money line posted at our book is far better than the price in the chart.
The more common the spread, the more accurate the expected win percentage will be. We’ve excluded spreads with less than 100 games to look at, but in reality you are better off contemplating those with a sample size of 500 or more matches.
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